Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 28/06, 14:00
FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs BFA Vilnius
41%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1428 · BFA Vilnius 1471
| FK Kauno Zalgiris II | Draw | BFA Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.34FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.06 · BFA Vilnius 1.28
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1428 vs 1471).
- H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kauno Zalgiris II | BFA Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 2–0–4 BFA Vilnius
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris II | 1-2 HT 0-1 | BFA Vilnius |
| 28/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | BFA Vilnius | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II |
| 26/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | BFA Vilnius |
| 29/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris II | 0-5 HT 0-1 | BFA Vilnius |
| 21/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris II | 2-0 HT 0-0 | BFA Vilnius |
| 01/04/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | BFA Vilnius | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kauno Zalgiris II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/06 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
BFA Vilnius
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 19/05 | FK Garliava Lithuania Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | FK Babrungas Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |