Football · Macau 1st Division · 27/06, 15:00
Cheng Fung vs Gala
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cheng Fung 1514 · Gala 1583
| Cheng Fung | Draw | Gala | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| Market | 24% | 19% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.74Cheng Fung 1.44 · Gala 2.3
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gala (rating 1514 vs 1583).
- High estimate: 3.74 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 1.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cheng Fung | Gala | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.9 | 3.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.8 | 3.6 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheng Fung 1–1–0 Gala
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Macau 1st Division | Gala | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cheng Fung |
| 14/03/25 Macau 1st Division | Gala | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cheng Fung |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cheng Fung
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Gorilla Of The Universe SC Macau 1st Division |
1-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | MUST IPO Macau FA Cup |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Benfica Macau Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Hang Sai Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Artilheiros Macau 1st Division |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Macau University Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Shao Jiang SA Macau 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | Macau Chiba FC Macau 1st Division |
1-3 | 2-5 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 08/03 | Gala Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 28/02 | Gorilla Of The Universe SC Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Gala
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Benfica Macau Macau 1st Division |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Hang Sai Macau FA Cup |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Artilheiros Macau 1st Division |
4-2 | 6-3 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Macau University Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Hang Sai Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Shao Jiang SA Macau 1st Division |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 12/04 | MUST IPO Macau 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Macau Chiba FC Macau 1st Division |
2-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Gorilla Of The Universe SC Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 08/03 | Cheng Fung Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |