Football · Japan Regional League · 27/06, 11:00
Aries Toshima FC vs Toin Yokohama University
37%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aries Toshima FC 1496 · Toin Yokohama University 1494
| Aries Toshima FC | Draw | Toin Yokohama University | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.71Aries Toshima FC 1.37 · Toin Yokohama University 1.34
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aries Toshima FC: 2-2-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aries Toshima FC | Toin Yokohama University | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 1.3 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.3 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aries Toshima FC 2–2–0 Toin Yokohama University
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Japan Regional League | Toin Yokohama University | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Aries Toshima FC |
| 29/06/25 Japan Regional League | Aries Toshima FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Toin Yokohama University |
| 16/09/24 Japan Regional League | Toin Yokohama University | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Aries Toshima FC |
| 23/06/24 Japan Regional League | Aries Toshima FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Toin Yokohama University |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aries Toshima FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | EDO ALL United Japan Regional League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/04 | Toho Titanium Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/09 | Nihon University Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Toho Titanium Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
Toin Yokohama University
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Toho Titanium Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Nihon University Japan Regional League |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | EDO ALL United Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 20/12 | Niigata University H&W Japan University Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 17/12 | Hiroshima University Japan University Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/12 | Hiroshima Economics University Japan University Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/12 | Momoyama Gakuin University Japan University Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |