Football · Japan Regional League · 27/06, 08:30
NIFS Kanoya FC vs KMG Holdings
67%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NIFS Kanoya FC 1466 · KMG Holdings 1569
| NIFS Kanoya FC | Draw | KMG Holdings | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 21% | 66% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.18NIFS Kanoya FC 0.94 · KMG Holdings 2.24
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KMG Holdings (rating 1466 vs 1569).
- High estimate: 3.18 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours KMG Holdings: 3-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NIFS Kanoya FC | KMG Holdings | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NIFS Kanoya FC 0–0–3 KMG Holdings
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Japan Regional League | KMG Holdings | 2-0 HT 1-0 | NIFS Kanoya FC |
| 13/07/25 Japan Regional League | KMG Holdings | 3-2 HT 1-0 | NIFS Kanoya FC |
| 07/04/24 Japan Regional League | NIFS Kanoya FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | KMG Holdings |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NIFS Kanoya FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/04 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/09 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/07 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/06 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
KMG Holdings
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | FC Hakata Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 03/08 | Nobeoka Agata Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |