Football · Argentina Nacional B · 05/07, 21:30
Central Norte vs CA San Miguel
Expected goals: 1.7 (Central Norte 0.94 · CA San Miguel 0.76). The model gives 37% home, 35% draw, 28% away. Under 1.5 goals (51%) and not both to score (55%). Most likely score: 0-0.
37%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central Norte 1461 · CA San Miguel 1512
| Central Norte | Draw | CA San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 36% | 27% |
| Market | 38% | 34% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.7 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.7Central Norte 0.94 · CA San Miguel 0.76
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 51%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA San Miguel (rating 1461 vs 1512).
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central Norte | CA San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.1 | 2.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.6 | 4.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Norte 0–0–1 CA San Miguel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | CA San Miguel | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Central Norte |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Moron | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Andes | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Colon | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Deportivo Madryn | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 28 |
| 6 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 26 |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes Caseros | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 25 |
| 10 | CA San Miguel | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | CA San Telmo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 20 |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 13 | Racing de Cordoba | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 20 |
| 14 | All Boys | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 19 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 18 |
| 17 | Club Atletico Mitre | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 17 |
| 18 | CA Chaco For Ever | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central Norte | CA San Miguel |
|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Acassuso | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Madryn | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Defensores de Belgrano | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Almirante Brown | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: CA San Miguel (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central Norte
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
CA San Miguel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |