Football · Argentina Nacional B · 05/07, 20:30
Patronato Parana vs San Martin de Tucuman
Expected goals: 1.55 (Patronato Parana 0.89 · San Martin de Tucuman 0.66). The model gives 38% home, 36% draw, 26% away. Under 1.5 goals (51%) and not both to score (56%). Most likely score: 0-0.
38%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patronato Parana 1520 · San Martin de Tucuman 1445
| Patronato Parana | Draw | San Martin de Tucuman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 38% | 24% |
| Market | 39% | 34% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.55 goals · Bet365 line 1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.55Patronato Parana 0.89 · San Martin de Tucuman 0.66
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 51%
BTTSNo · 56%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 87%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patronato Parana (rating 1520 vs 1445).
- H2H favours San Martin de Tucuman: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Patronato Parana | San Martin de Tucuman | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 6.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Patronato Parana 1–1–4 San Martin de Tucuman
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 29/06/25 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 23/02/25 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 0-1 HT 0-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 06/10/24 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 0-1 HT 0-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 21/05/24 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 17/09/23 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 1-3 HT 1-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 33 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Atletico Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 27 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 6 | Ferrocarril Midland | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | San Martin SJ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Maipu | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Nueva Chicago | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| 12 | Almagro | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 22 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | Patronato Parana | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 17 | CA Guemes | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Agropecuario | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Patronato Parana | San Martin de Tucuman |
|---|---|---|
| Ferrocarril Midland | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Atletico Rafaela | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Agropecuario | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Club Atletico Temperley | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Patronato Parana (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patronato Parana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 14/06 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 25/04 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 19/04 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
San Martin de Tucuman
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 07/06 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Banfield Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |