Football · Argentina Nacional B · 05/07, 20:30
Ferro Carril Oeste vs CA San Telmo
Expected goals: 1.64 (Ferro Carril Oeste 1.27 · CA San Telmo 0.36). The model gives 61% home, 28% draw, 11% away. Under 2 goals (58%) and not both to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-0.
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferro Carril Oeste 1593 · CA San Telmo 1485
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Draw | CA San Telmo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 31% | 10% |
| Market | 62% | 26% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.64 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.64Ferro Carril Oeste 1.27 · CA San Telmo 0.36
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 58%
BTTSNo · 59%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (rating 1593 vs 1485).
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferro Carril Oeste | CA San Telmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/90/10% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 1.3 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferro Carril Oeste 2–0–2 CA San Telmo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | CA San Telmo | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ferro Carril Oeste |
| 03/07/22 Argentina Nacional B | CA San Telmo | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste |
| 27/10/21 Argentina Nacional B | Ferro Carril Oeste | 6-0 HT 3-0 | CA San Telmo |
| 27/06/21 Argentina Nacional B | CA San Telmo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Moron | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Andes | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Colon | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Deportivo Madryn | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 28 |
| 6 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 26 |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes Caseros | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 25 |
| 10 | CA San Miguel | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | CA San Telmo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 20 |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 13 | Racing de Cordoba | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 20 |
| 14 | All Boys | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 19 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 18 |
| 17 | Club Atletico Mitre | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 17 |
| 18 | CA Chaco For Ever | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferro Carril Oeste | CA San Telmo |
|---|---|---|
| Racing de Cordoba | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Central Norte | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Madryn | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Defensores de Belgrano | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Almirante Brown | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Club Atletico Mitre | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferro Carril Oeste (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferro Carril Oeste
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 29/04 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
CA San Telmo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 07/06 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 11 | D |
| 25/04 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |