⚽ Football · Chile Tercera · 26/06, 21:00
Club Aguara vs Lautaro de Buin
43%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Aguara 1510 · Lautaro de Buin 1514
| Club Aguara | Draw | Lautaro de Buin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.22Club Aguara 1.78 · Lautaro de Buin 1.44
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- High estimate: 3.22 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Lautaro de Buin: 2-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Aguara | Lautaro de Buin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.5 | 3.2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.3 | 6.5 / 0.5 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Aguara 0–0–2 Lautaro de Buin
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 Chile Tercera | Lautaro de Buin | 5-3 HT 0-3 | Club Aguara |
| 17/05/25 Chile Tercera | Club Aguara | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Lautaro de Buin |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Club Aguara
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Atletico Oriente Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Comunal Cabrero Chile Tercera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Futuro FC Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | CD Constitucion Unido Chile Tercera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Chimbarongo FC Chile Tercera |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 24/04 | Malleco Unido Chile Tercera |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | CD Imperial Unido Chile Tercera |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 10/04 | Rodelindo Roman Chile Tercera |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 08/11 | Chimbarongo FC Chile Tercera |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 31/10 | Naval Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Lautaro de Buin
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | CD Constitucion Unido Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Puente Alto Chile Tercera |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 06/06 | Deportes Rancagua Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 0-2 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Naval Chile Tercera |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Quintero Unido Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 19/04 | Futuro FC Chile Tercera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 11/04 | Atletico Oriente Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 1-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | AC Colina Chile Tercera |
0-2 | 0-6 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Naval Chile Tercera |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 18/10 | Malleco Unido Chile Tercera |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 11 | D |