⚽ Football · Bhutan Premier League · 27/06, 12:00
Ugyen Academy vs Thimphu City
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ugyen Academy 1482 · Thimphu City 1523
| Ugyen Academy | Draw | Thimphu City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 21% | 38% |
| Market | 8% | 10% | 82% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Ugyen Academy 2.3 · Thimphu City 2.2
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 64%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thimphu City (rating 1482 vs 1523).
- High estimate: 4.5 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Thimphu City: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ugyen Academy | Thimphu City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 3.2 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 3 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Ugyen Academy 0–0–6 Thimphu City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/26 Bhutan Premier League | Ugyen Academy | 2-4 | Thimphu City |
| 14/08/25 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 6-2 HT 2-2 | Ugyen Academy |
| 03/05/25 Bhutan Premier League | Ugyen Academy | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Thimphu City |
| 22/09/23 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 5-2 HT 2-2 | Ugyen Academy |
| 13/12/22 Bhutan Premier League | Ugyen Academy | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Thimphu City |
| 01/10/22 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Ugyen Academy |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Ugyen Academy
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-5 | 0-11 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Thimphu City Bhutan Premier League |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Tensung FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/10 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 14/10 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 06/10 | Southern City Bhutan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 21/09 | RTC FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/08 | Thimphu City Bhutan Premier League |
2-2 | 2-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
Thimphu City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Ugyen Academy Bhutan Premier League |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | RTC FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 18/05 | Drukpa FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 14/05 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/03 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League Qualifiers |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/11 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 20/10 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 16/09 | Tensung FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 4 | W |