Football · Uruguay League Women · 28/06, 18:00
Defensor Sporting (W) vs Liverpool Montevideo (W)
42%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting (W) 1515 · Liverpool Montevideo (W) 1497
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.1Defensor Sporting (W) 1.66 · Liverpool Montevideo (W) 1.45
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 3.1 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Liverpool Montevideo (W): 3-1-2.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/38/25% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 4 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting (W) 2–1–3 Liverpool Montevideo (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
| 31/08/25 Uruguay League Women | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 18/05/25 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 1-2 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
| 15/09/24 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
| 08/10/23 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
| 22/05/23 Uruguay League Women | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 0-8 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/11 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/11 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/11 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Liverpool Montevideo (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/11 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 16/11 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 08/11 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |