⚽ Football · World Cup 2026 · 28/06, 21:00
South Africa vs Canada
46%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Africa 1476 · Canada 1522
| South Africa | Draw | Canada | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 18% | 25% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.13South Africa 1.09 · Canada 1.03
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 56%
BTTSNo · 56%
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canada (rating 1476 vs 1522).
- High corners: 13.3 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Africa | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.6 | 4.3 / 8.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.5 | 4 / 0.7 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
South Africa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | South Korea World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/06 | Czechia World Cup 2026 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/06 | Mexico World Cup 2026 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Jamaica International Match |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 29/05 | Nicaragua International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 31/03 | Panama International Match |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/03 | Panama International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 04/01 | Cameroon Africa Cup of Nations |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 29/12 | Zimbabwe Africa Cup of Nations |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/12 | Egypt Africa Cup of Nations |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Canada
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Switzerland World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Qatar World Cup 2026 |
3-0 | 6-0 | 19 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | Bosnia-Herzegovina World Cup 2026 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Rep of Ireland International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 02/06 | Uzbekistan International Match |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Tunisia International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Iceland International Match |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 18/01 | Guatemala International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/11 | Venezuela International Match |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/11 | Ecuador International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |