⚽ Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 27/06, 22:00
UAI Urquiza vs Sportivo Italiano
35%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UAI Urquiza 1493 · Sportivo Italiano 1485
| UAI Urquiza | Draw | Sportivo Italiano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Market | 29% | 33% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.32 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals1.32UAI Urquiza 0.87 · Sportivo Italiano 0.45
BTTSNo · 78%
Most likely total1 goals
💎 ValueUAI Urquiza or draw · @1.60Safer option: double chance at 1.60 (win or draw). The straight winner paid more but is riskier.
🔑 Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.32 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UAI Urquiza | Sportivo Italiano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 0–5–1 Sportivo Italiano
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UAI Urquiza |
| 22/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UAI Urquiza |
| 06/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 22/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 1-1 HT 0-1 | UAI Urquiza |
| 04/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 17/07/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 2-2 HT 0-1 | UAI Urquiza |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
UAI Urquiza
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 08/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 12 | L |
| 25/04 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Sportivo Italiano
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |