⚽ Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 27/06, 22:00
Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1588 · Deportivo Merlo 1486
| Excursionistas | Draw | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 56% | 28% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.56Excursionistas 1.81 · Deportivo Merlo 0.76
Most likely total2 goals
💎 ValueOver 2 goals · +6.7%The model gives this bet 6.7% more probability than its odds (1.93) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1588 vs 1486).
- Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excursionistas | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 6 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 3–0–3 Deportivo Merlo
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Excursionistas |
| 06/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 20/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Excursionistas |
| 14/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Excursionistas |
| 27/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 23/11/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Excursionistas |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Excursionistas
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
Deportivo Merlo
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 15/06 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |