⚽ Football · Mongolia Premier League · 25/06, 10:00
Khovd FC vs Hunters FC
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Khovd FC 1381 · Hunters FC 1558
| Khovd FC | Draw | Hunters FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 18% | 55% |
| Market | 4% | 4% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.9 goals · Bet365 line 5.5 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.9Khovd FC 2.04 · Hunters FC 2.86
BTTSYes · 82%
Most likely total4 goals
💎 ValueUnder 5.5 goals · +7%The model gives this bet 7% more probability than its odds (1.98) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Hunters FC usually leads at HT (60%) while Khovd FC trails (60%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hunters FC (rating 1381 vs 1558).
- High estimate: 4.9 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Khovd FC: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Khovd FC | Hunters FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 5.9 | 4.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.4 | 1.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Khovd FC 3–1–2 Hunters FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Hunters FC | 10-1 HT 2-0 | Khovd FC |
| 29/10/25 Mongolia Premier League | Khovd FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Hunters FC |
| 09/07/25 Mongolia Premier League | Khovd FC | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Hunters FC |
| 19/04/25 Mongolia Premier League | Hunters FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Khovd FC |
| 03/10/24 Mongolia Premier League | Khovd FC | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Hunters FC |
| 05/10/21 Mongolia First League | Khovd FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Hunters FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Khovd FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-10 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-6 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/05 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-6 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-9 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/11 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 3 | 0 | L |
Hunters FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
3-0 | 9-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 10-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
4-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 07/05 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
6-1 | 8-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/04 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |