Football · Paraguay Women League · 27/06, 23:30
Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Nacional-Humaita (W)
85%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Libertad Limpeno (W) 1633 · Nacional-Humaita (W) 1487
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | Draw | Nacional-Humaita (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 93% | 5% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Libertad Limpeno (W) 3.25 · Nacional-Humaita (W) 1.25
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Limpeno (W) (rating 1633 vs 1487).
- High estimate: 4.5 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Libertad Limpeno (W): 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 3.3 combined avg at HT (2.1 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | Nacional-Humaita (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5 / 0.5 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.5 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Limpeno (W) 6–0–0 Nacional-Humaita (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
| 05/05/25 Paraguay Women League | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
| 10/02/25 Paraguay Women League | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
| 08/09/24 Paraguay Women League | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 1-14 HT 0-5 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
| 22/06/24 Paraguay Women League | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
| 28/09/23 Paraguay Women League | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertad Limpeno (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 11-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
6-0 | 9-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/03 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
3-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
5-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/03 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Nacional-Humaita (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/03 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 15/03 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
4-2 | 5-3 | 3 | 4 | W |