Football · Paraguay Women League · 28/06, 01:30
Club Guarani (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)
83%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Guarani (W) 1579 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1455
| Club Guarani (W) | Draw | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 88% | 6% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.83Club Guarani (W) 2.92 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 0.92
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 54%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Club Guarani (W) usually leads at HT (78%) while Deportivo Recoleta (W) trails (50%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Guarani (W) (rating 1579 vs 1455).
- High estimate: 3.83 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Guarani (W) | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 78/22/0% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.1 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Guarani (W) 1–1–0 Deportivo Recoleta (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/25 Paraguay Women League | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Guarani (W) |
| 16/03/25 Paraguay Women League | Club Guarani (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Guarani (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 29/03 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/03 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/12 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 6-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-3 | 0-7 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 23/04 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 20/03 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/11 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 14/11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |