Football · Paraguay Women League · 28/06, 20:00
Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Sportivo Ameliano (W)
84%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo Trinidense (W) 1507 · Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1372
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | Draw | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 89% | 7% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.84 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.84Sportivo Trinidense (W) 2.92 · Sportivo Ameliano (W) 0.92
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 54%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Trinidense (W) (rating 1507 vs 1372).
- High estimate: 3.84 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Sportivo Trinidense (W): 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 0.5 / 4.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.2 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 10/0/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Trinidense (W) 5–0–1 Sportivo Ameliano (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) |
| 27/04/25 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 0-6 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) |
| 01/02/25 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) |
| 18/08/24 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) |
| 02/06/24 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) |
| 30/09/23 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo Trinidense (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 25/04 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/04 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/03 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 22/11 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 2 | L |
Sportivo Ameliano (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 2-6 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-5 | 0-10 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/03 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-7 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-5 | 0-8 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/11 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |