Football · Paraguay Women League · 28/06, 22:15
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs 2 de Mayo (W)
77%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1488 · 2 de Mayo (W) 1434
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | Draw | 2 de Mayo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.28Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 3.14 · 2 de Mayo (W) 1.14
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1488 vs 1434).
- High estimate: 4.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 2 de Mayo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 2.6 | 1.2 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 22/22/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.4 | 3 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
4-1 | 6-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 26/04 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/04 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/03 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/03 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-4 | 3-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
2 de Mayo (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-11 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 21/11 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |