⚽ Football · Lebanon League · 25/06, 15:00
Sagesse SC vs Al-Mabarrah
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sagesse SC 1516 · Al-Mabarrah 1497
| Sagesse SC | Draw | Al-Mabarrah | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.43Sagesse SC 1.46 · Al-Mabarrah 0.97
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 53%
BTTSNo · 52%
Likely score1-0
💎 ValueDraw +5.1%The model gives this bet 5.1% more probability than its odds (1.98) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Sagesse SC: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagesse SC | Al-Mabarrah | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.9 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 13/63/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 0.3 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagesse SC 3–1–1 Al-Mabarrah
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Lebanon Cup | Sagesse SC | 6-5 HT 1-1 | Al-Mabarrah |
| 14/12/25 Lebanon League | Al-Mabarrah | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sagesse SC |
| 01/12/18 Lebanon Division 2 | Sagesse SC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Al-Mabarrah |
| 03/02/18 Lebanon Division 2 | Al-Mabarrah | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sagesse SC |
| 10/02/17 Lebanon Division 2 | Al-Mabarrah | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Sagesse SC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Sagesse SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/02 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon Cup |
0-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/02 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 30/01 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/01 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/01 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon Cup |
1-1 | 6-5 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/12 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Al-Mabarrah
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/06 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
– | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 11/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 15/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/01 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/01 | Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup |
1-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/12 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 21/12 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |