Football · Finland Cup Women · 30/06, 18:00
PK-35 Vantaa (W) vs HJK (W)
Expected goals: 4.5 (PK-35 Vantaa (W) 1.25 · HJK (W) 3.25). The model gives 7% home, 11% draw, 83% away. Under 4.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-3.
83%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PK-35 Vantaa (W) 1403 · HJK (W) 1635
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | Draw | HJK (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 4% | 8% | 89% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.5PK-35 Vantaa (W) 1.25 · HJK (W) 3.25
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1403 vs 1635).
- H2H favours HJK (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | HJK (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.6 | 3.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5 | 2.9 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PK-35 Vantaa (W) 0–0–6 HJK (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 5-0 HT 3-0 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
| 18/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women Play-Offs | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | HJK (W) |
| 10/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
| 03/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | HJK (W) |
| 07/06/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) |
| 03/03/25 Finland Cup Women | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | HJK (W) |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | HJK (W) |
|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan (W) | 0-3 L | 5-0 W |
| KuPS (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Ilves (W) | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| VIFK (W) | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Aland United (W) | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| HPS (W) | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: HJK (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PK-35 Vantaa (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 14/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
HJK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/06 | HJK U18 (W) Finland Cup Women |
5-1 | 6-1 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 12/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 02/04 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 0 | W |