⚽ Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 24/06, 18:00
Independiente del Valle (W) vs Emelec (W)
82%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle (W) 1627 · Emelec (W) 1449
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Draw | Emelec (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 15% | 16% |
| Market | 94% | 4% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Independiente del Valle (W) 3.03 · Emelec (W) 1.47
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 73%
Likely score3-1
🔑 Match keys
- Independiente del Valle (W) usually leads at HT (71%) while Emelec (W) trails (100%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (W) (rating 1627 vs 1449).
- High estimate: 4.5 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 3-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.9 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Emelec (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 0 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 71/29/0% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.7 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.7 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle (W) 3–0–0 Emelec (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Emelec (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 11/05/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Emelec (W) | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 08/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 3-0 | Emelec (W) |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Independiente del Valle (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 12-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/03 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
Emelec (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 01/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-10 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/03 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |