⚽ Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 24/06, 21:30
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs EL Nacional (W)
82%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1585 · EL Nacional (W) 1402
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Draw | EL Nacional (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 15% | 16% |
| Market | 94% | 5% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.72 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.72Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 3.15 · EL Nacional (W) 1.57
Over / Under 5Under 5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 75%
Likely score3-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) (rating 1585 vs 1402).
- High estimate: 4.72 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W): 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | EL Nacional (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.7 | 1 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 17/17/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.4 | 1.3 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 3–0–2 EL Nacional (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 Ecuador Primera Women | EL Nacional (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 15/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 8-0 HT 3-0 | EL Nacional (W) |
| 30/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | EL Nacional (W) | 0-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 05/05/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | EL Nacional (W) |
| 06/08/22 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | EL Nacional (W) |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/04 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
EL Nacional (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 30/04 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-4 | 2-10 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/03 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/03 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/08 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/08 | Club Nanas Women Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |