Football · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · 27/06, 20:00
Alianza Lima (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza Lima (W) 1565 · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1616
| Alianza Lima (W) | Draw | Universitario de Deportes (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.96Alianza Lima (W) 1.42 · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1.54
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (W) (rating 1565 vs 1616).
- H2H favours Alianza Lima (W): 2-3-1.
- Early goals: 3.8 combined avg at HT (1.4 + 2.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Lima (W) | Universitario de Deportes (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 2.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 57/29/14% | 71/14/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima (W) 2–3–1 Universitario de Deportes (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Alianza Lima (W) | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 13/12/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Alianza Lima (W) |
| 07/12/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Alianza Lima (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 15/11/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Alianza Lima (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 09/11/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 0-0 | Alianza Lima (W) |
| 14/09/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Alianza Lima (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Lima (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/06 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 26/05 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Universitario de Deportes (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/05 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 14/03 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
8-0 | 16-0 | 10 | 2 | W |