⚽ Football · Venezuela Cup · 24/06, 21:30
Real Frontera vs Atletico Barinas
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Frontera 1430 · Atletico Barinas 1501
| Real Frontera | Draw | Atletico Barinas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
PickOver 2.5 goals · 60%
Expected goals3.66Real Frontera 1.78 · Atletico Barinas 1.88
BTTSYes · 70%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValuePremium onlyHigh value detected. Go premium to see it.
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.66) is far from Bet365's line (2.5): possible value on Over 2.5.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Barinas (rating 1430 vs 1501).
- High estimate: 3.66 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.5 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Frontera | Atletico Barinas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 2.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.2 | 2.8 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.2 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Frontera 1–0–1 Atletico Barinas
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division | Real Frontera | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Atletico Barinas |
| 01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division | Atletico Barinas | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Real Frontera |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Real Frontera
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 04/04 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 11 | L |
Atletico Barinas
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-0 | 7-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 9 | L |