⚽ Football · Venezuela Cup · 24/06, 22:00
Caracas vs Aragua
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caracas 1524 · Aragua 1514
| Caracas | Draw | Aragua | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 62% | 25% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.73Caracas 1.58 · Aragua 1.15
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 58%
BTTSYes · 54%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValuePremium onlyHigh value detected. Go premium to see it.
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Aragua: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caracas | Aragua | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.4 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 7.6 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 2–1–3 Aragua
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/25 Venezuela Cup | Caracas | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Aragua |
| 18/06/25 Venezuela Cup | Aragua | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Caracas |
| 19/09/22 Venezuela Primera Division | Aragua | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Caracas |
| 27/02/22 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aragua |
| 07/12/20 Venezuela Primera Division | Aragua | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Caracas |
| 12/11/20 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Aragua |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Caracas
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 20/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/04 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 13/04 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/04 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Aragua
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 09/05 | Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 04/04 | Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 10 | W |