Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 28/06, 14:45
Ferroviario Beira vs Ferroviario de Nampula
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferroviario Beira 1552 · Ferroviario de Nampula 1491
| Ferroviario Beira | Draw | Ferroviario de Nampula | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 32% | 16% |
| Market | 52% | 31% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.81 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.81Ferroviario Beira 1.24 · Ferroviario de Nampula 0.57
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario Beira (rating 1552 vs 1491).
- Low estimate: 1.81 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Ferroviario Beira: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferroviario Beira | Ferroviario de Nampula | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.7 | 1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Beira 2–1–0 Ferroviario de Nampula
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Beira | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Ferroviario de Nampula |
| 09/07/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario de Nampula | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ferroviario Beira |
| 29/08/21 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Beira | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Ferroviario de Nampula |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferroviario Beira
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/06 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 07/12 | GDRT Textafrica Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/11 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/11 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Ferroviario de Nampula
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/05 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/11 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/11 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
1-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/11 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/10 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | GDRT Textafrica Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |