⚽ Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 25/06, 14:45
Vilankulo FC vs Ferroviario Maputo
43%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vilankulo FC 1517 · Ferroviario Maputo 1490
| Vilankulo FC | Draw | Ferroviario Maputo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 37% | 33% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.88 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals1.88Vilankulo FC 1.21 · Ferroviario Maputo 0.66
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 66%
Likely score1-0
💎 ValueVilankulo FC +5.3%The model gives this bet 5.3% more probability than its odds (2.40) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.88 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Ferroviario Maputo: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vilankulo FC | Ferroviario Maputo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.4 | 3.4 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilankulo FC 1–3–2 Ferroviario Maputo
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Vilankulo FC |
| 25/05/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Vilankulo FC | 0-0 | Ferroviario Maputo |
| 17/11/24 Mozambique Cup | Ferroviario Maputo | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Vilankulo FC |
| 27/05/24 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Vilankulo FC |
| 11/08/23 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vilankulo FC |
| 22/10/22 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Vilankulo FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Vilankulo FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/06 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/05 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/12 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 30/11 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/11 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/11 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/11 | GDRT Textafrica Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Ferroviario Maputo
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/06 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Matchedje de Maputo Mozambique Cup |
0-0 | 4-3 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/05 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/05 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/12 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/12 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |