Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 01/07, 12:30
Virginia United SC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)
Expected goals: 3.42 (Virginia United SC (W) 1.71 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.71). The model gives 38% home, 23% draw, 38% away. Under 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
38%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia United SC (W) 1477 · Logan Lightning (W) 1500
| Virginia United SC (W) | Draw | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 39% | 22% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.42Virginia United SC (W) 1.71 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.71
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Virginia United SC (W): 4-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia United SC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.8 | 2 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 2.1 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia United SC (W) 4–0–2 Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 14/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 3-4 HT 1-1 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 05/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 07/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 5-2 HT 1-1 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 13/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 15/07/23 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 16 |
| 4 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 5 | Logan Lightning (W) | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 15 |
| 6 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 12 |
| 7 | Virginia United SC (W) | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 11 |
| 8 | Peninsula Power (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 11 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virginia United SC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) |
|---|---|---|
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 1-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 0-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Logan Lightning (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia United SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 21/03 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 13/03 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 17/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |