Football · Costa Rica Primera Division Women · 28/06, 19:00
Alajuelense (W) vs Saprissa (W)
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alajuelense (W) 1573 · Saprissa (W) 1531
| Alajuelense (W) | Draw | Saprissa (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.05Alajuelense (W) 1.99 · Saprissa (W) 1.06
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (W) (rating 1573 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Alajuelense (W): 4-2-0.
- Early goals: 3.1 combined avg at HT (2.3 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alajuelense (W) | Saprissa (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.3 / 0 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.7 | 1.6 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alajuelense (W) 4–2–0 Saprissa (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Saprissa (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alajuelense (W) |
| 02/04/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Saprissa (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense (W) |
| 14/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Alajuelense (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Saprissa (W) |
| 21/09/25 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Alajuelense (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Saprissa (W) |
| 03/08/25 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Saprissa (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Alajuelense (W) |
| 13/12/24 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Alajuelense (W) | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Saprissa (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alajuelense (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 12/05 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 05/05 | Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
5-0 | 9-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
8-0 | 12-0 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Sporting San Jose (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | CS Herediano (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/04 | Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | Moravia (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
Saprissa (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Alajuelense (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Sporting San Jose (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | Sporting San Jose (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | CS Herediano (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Moravia (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/04 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/04 | Alajuelense (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |