Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 01/07, 11:30
Newmarket vs North Lakes United
Expected goals: 4.28 (Newmarket 2.93 · North Lakes United 1.35). The model gives 69% home, 16% draw, 15% away. Over 4 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 2-1.
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newmarket 1591 · North Lakes United 1506
| Newmarket | Draw | North Lakes United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.28Newmarket 2.93 · North Lakes United 1.35
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1591 vs 1506).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newmarket | North Lakes United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.6 / 1.6 | 2.3 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 1.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0 |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 22 | 35 |
| 2 | Newmarket | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 33 |
| 3 | Moggill | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 23 | 30 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 32 | 26 |
| 6 | North Lakes United | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 35 | 20 |
| 7 | North Brisbane FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 51 | 20 |
| 8 | Logan Roos FC | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 46 | 19 |
| 9 | University of Queensland | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 18 |
| 10 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 36 | 18 |
| 11 | Ipswich Knights | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 43 | 18 |
| 12 | North Pine | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 64 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newmarket | North Lakes United |
|---|---|---|
| Springfield United | 2-2 D | 5-1 W |
| University of Queensland | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 6-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Moggill | 7-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 3-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Ipswich Knights | 2-0 W | 6-2 W |
| AC Carina | 2-6 L | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Newmarket (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
North Lakes United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-3 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/06 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 6-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/04 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |