Football · Moldova Divizia Nationala · 27/06, 19:00
FC Milsami vs Zimbru Chisinau
42%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Milsami 1439 · Zimbru Chisinau 1567
| FC Milsami | Draw | Zimbru Chisinau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.28FC Milsami 1.01 · Zimbru Chisinau 1.27
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zimbru Chisinau (rating 1439 vs 1567).
- H2H favours Zimbru Chisinau: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Milsami | Zimbru Chisinau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 3.4 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Milsami 0–1–5 Zimbru Chisinau
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Moldova Cup | FC Milsami | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Zimbru Chisinau |
| 06/05/26 Moldova Cup | Zimbru Chisinau | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Milsami |
| 18/04/26 Moldova Divizia Nationala | Zimbru Chisinau | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FC Milsami |
| 07/03/26 Moldova Divizia Nationala | FC Milsami | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Zimbru Chisinau |
| 05/10/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala | FC Milsami | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Zimbru Chisinau |
| 10/08/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala | Zimbru Chisinau | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Milsami |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Milsami
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/05 | Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/05 | Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/04 | CF Sparta Selemet Moldova Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova Divizia Nationala |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 04/04 | Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Zimbru Chisinau
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 9 | D |
| 13/05 | FC Milsami Moldova Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/05 | FC Milsami Moldova Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 21/04 | FC Politehnica Chisinau Moldova Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | FC Milsami Moldova Divizia Nationala |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |