Football · Morocco GNF 2 · 27/06, 17:00
US Amal Tiznit vs Mouloudia Oujda
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Amal Tiznit 1492 · Mouloudia Oujda 1451
| US Amal Tiznit | Draw | Mouloudia Oujda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 30% | 13% |
| Market | 57% | 29% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.95 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.95US Amal Tiznit 1.4 · Mouloudia Oujda 0.55
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 55%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Amal Tiznit (rating 1492 vs 1451).
- Low estimate: 1.95 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Amal Tiznit | Mouloudia Oujda | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/75/25% | 0/25/75% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 2.3 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.5 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Amal Tiznit 0–1–0 Mouloudia Oujda
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Morocco GNF 2 | Mouloudia Oujda | 1-1 | US Amal Tiznit |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Amal Tiznit
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | MAT Tetouan Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | JS Soualem Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | JS Massira Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Union Sportive Boujaad Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Difaa El Jadida Morocco Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Widad Temara Morocco GNF 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Racing de Casablanca Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir Morocco GNF 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 05/04 | WAF Widad Fes Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | USM Oujda Morocco GNF 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
Mouloudia Oujda
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir Morocco GNF 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | KAC Kenitra Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | USM Oujda Morocco GNF 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Raja Beni Mellal Morocco GNF 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | SC Chabab Mohammedia Morocco GNF 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Chabab Atlas Khénifra Morocco GNF 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Widad Temara Morocco GNF 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | JS Soualem Morocco GNF 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 29/03 | JS Massira Morocco GNF 2 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/03 | MAT Tetouan Morocco GNF 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |