Football · Norway Cup Women · 28/06, 14:00
Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)
45%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stabaek (W) 1556 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1602
| Stabaek (W) | Draw | Fortuna Aalesund (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 24% | 46% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.47Stabaek (W) 1.55 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1.92
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1556 vs 1602).
- High estimate: 3.47 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.8 combined avg at HT (1.3 + 1.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 13.5 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stabaek (W) | Fortuna Aalesund (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 3.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 3.8 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stabaek (W) 0–1–0 Fortuna Aalesund (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Norway Toppserien Women | Fortuna Aalesund (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Stabaek (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stabaek (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 17/06 | Arna-Bjørnar (W) Norway Cup Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Roa (W) Norway Cup Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Odd BK (W) Norway Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Fortuna Aalesund (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
5-1 | 8-1 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Valerenga (W) Norway Cup Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/05 | Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
0-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 19/05 | Molde FK (W) Norway Cup Women |
1-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Kil Hemne Women Norway Cup Women |
4-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |