Football · Argentina Championship Women · 28/06, 20:00
Union Santa Fe (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe (W) 1401 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1498
| Union Santa Fe (W) | Draw | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 25% | 64% |
| Market | 13% | 21% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.26Union Santa Fe (W) 0.56 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1.69
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (rating 1401 vs 1498).
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Santa Fe (W) | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.6 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.8 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Santa Fe (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/03 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 15/03 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/06 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 29/03 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/03 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/03 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 11 | D |