Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/06, 13:00
Poxyt vs MPS
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Poxyt 1525 · MPS 1462
| Poxyt | Draw | MPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 19% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.29Poxyt 2.12 · MPS 1.18
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poxyt (rating 1525 vs 1462).
- High estimate: 3.29 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Poxyt | MPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.9 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/50/38% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 2.8 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Poxyt
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen |
2-4 | 3-7 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | ESPA Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/04 | LePa Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
MPS
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/06 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/05 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 22/05 | LePa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | ESPA Finland Kolmonen |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 17/04 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |