Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 21:00
Portuguesa Desportos vs Sampaio Correa RJ
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portuguesa Desportos 1557 · Sampaio Correa RJ 1456
| Portuguesa Desportos | Draw | Sampaio Correa RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 25% | 10% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsUnder 3.5 goals · 81% · @1.28 · +4%
Both teams score: Yes · 46% · @2.50 · +14%
High-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.Expected goals2.24Portuguesa Desportos 1.72 · Sampaio Correa RJ 0.52
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portuguesa Desportos (rating 1557 vs 1456).
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portuguesa Desportos | Sampaio Correa RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.2 | 2.1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 5.9 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa Desportos 0–1–0 Sampaio Correa RJ
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Sampaio Correa RJ | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Portuguesa Desportos |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portuguesa Desportos
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Sampaio Correa RJ
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 07/06 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 24/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 13 | L |
| 09/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 07/05 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/04 | Operario PR Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 26/04 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |