Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 21:00
Capital CF vs Aparecidense
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Capital CF 1545 · Aparecidense 1520
| Capital CF | Draw | Aparecidense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.38Capital CF 1.48 · Aparecidense 0.9
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 54%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aparecidense: 2-1-0.
- Early goals: 2 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Capital CF | Aparecidense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.9 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Capital CF 0–1–2 Aparecidense
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Aparecidense | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Capital CF |
| 26/07/25 Brazil Serie D | Aparecidense | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Capital CF |
| 20/04/25 Brazil Serie D | Capital CF | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aparecidense |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Capital CF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 30/05 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 30/04 | Operario MS Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 30/04 | Operario FC MS Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Aparecidense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 9 | W |