Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 21:00
Iguatu vs Tuna Luso
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iguatu 1574 · Tuna Luso 1481
| Iguatu | Draw | Tuna Luso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.78Iguatu 1.78 · Tuna Luso 0.99
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iguatu (rating 1574 vs 1481).
- Cards-heavy: 13.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Iguatu | Tuna Luso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.8 / 0.3 | 7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iguatu 1–0–0 Tuna Luso
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Tuna Luso | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Iguatu |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iguatu
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 11 | D |
| 10/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Tuna Luso
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 24/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 14 | D |
| 25/04 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 12/04 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 7 | D |