Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 21:00
EC Agua Santa vs Velo Clube SP
41%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · EC Agua Santa 1515 · Velo Clube SP 1505
| EC Agua Santa | Draw | Velo Clube SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 35% | 26% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsUnder 1.5 goals · 43% · @2.63 · +14%
Under 3.5 goals · 88% · @1.20 · +6%
High-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.Expected goals1.86EC Agua Santa 1.05 · Velo Clube SP 0.8
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.86 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Velo Clube SP: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EC Agua Santa | Velo Clube SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.3 | 4.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Agua Santa 1–1–3 Velo Clube SP
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Velo Clube SP | 0-0 HT 0-0 | EC Agua Santa |
| 23/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Velo Clube SP | 1-0 HT 1-0 | EC Agua Santa |
| 27/02/21 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Velo Clube SP | 0-2 HT 0-0 | EC Agua Santa |
| 16/04/17 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Velo Clube SP | 2-1 HT 1-0 | EC Agua Santa |
| 03/05/15 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Velo Clube SP | 1-0 HT 0-0 | EC Agua Santa |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EC Agua Santa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 16/04 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Velo Clube SP
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |