Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 22:00
Aguia de Maraba vs Parnahyba
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aguia de Maraba 1511 · Parnahyba 1507
| Aguia de Maraba | Draw | Parnahyba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 57% | 26% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.64Aguia de Maraba 1.76 · Parnahyba 0.87
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aguia de Maraba | Parnahyba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 5.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguia de Maraba 0–0–1 Parnahyba
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Parnahyba | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Aguia de Maraba |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aguia de Maraba
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 24/05 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/04 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Copa Norte |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Parnahyba
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 13 | W |
| 26/04 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |