Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 22:00
Ferroviario vs Central SC
42%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferroviario 1540 · Central SC 1500
| Ferroviario | Draw | Central SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 35% | 24% |
| Market | 43% | 31% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.75 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.75Ferroviario 1.02 · Central SC 0.73
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 55%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario (rating 1540 vs 1500).
- Low estimate: 1.75 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferroviario | Central SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario 0–2–1 Central SC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Central SC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ferroviario |
| 27/07/25 Brazil Serie D | Ferroviario | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Central SC |
| 20/04/25 Brazil Serie D | Central SC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferroviario
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/06 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Central SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ferroviario Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 14/06 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 26/04 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 12/04 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |