Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 23:00
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luverdense 1510 · Ceilandia 1481
| Luverdense | Draw | Ceilandia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 30% | 16% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.99Luverdense 1.36 · Ceilandia 0.63
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.99 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Luverdense: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Luverdense | Ceilandia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luverdense 3–1–1 Ceilandia
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Ceilandia | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Luverdense |
| 05/07/25 Brazil Serie D | Ceilandia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Luverdense |
| 10/05/25 Brazil Serie D | Luverdense | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Ceilandia |
| 19/03/17 Brazil Copa Verde | Luverdense | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Ceilandia |
| 04/03/17 Brazil Copa Verde | Ceilandia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Luverdense |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luverdense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Ceilandia
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 25/04 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |