Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 23:00
America RN vs Fluminense PI
73%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America RN 1562 · Fluminense PI 1494
| America RN | Draw | Fluminense PI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 21% | 7% |
| Market | 74% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsHigh-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.
Expected goals2.28America RN 1.87 · Fluminense PI 0.41
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America RN (rating 1562 vs 1494).
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America RN | Fluminense PI | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 8.1 | 1.8 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America RN 1–0–0 Fluminense PI
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Fluminense PI | 0-3 HT 0-1 | America RN |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America RN
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 5-0 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 30/04 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 23/04 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Fluminense PI
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Ferroviario Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 30/04 | Botafogo PB Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
3-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |