Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 20:00
Santa Catarina vs Sao Jose PA
42%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santa Catarina 1551 · Sao Jose PA 1521
| Santa Catarina | Draw | Sao Jose PA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| Market | 42% | 33% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.79Santa Catarina 1.06 · Sao Jose PA 0.73
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.79 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santa Catarina | Sao Jose PA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.2 | 2.9 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Catarina 0–1–0 Sao Jose PA
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Sao Jose PA | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Santa Catarina |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santa Catarina
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 02/05 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
2-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 11/04 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Sao Jose PA
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 01/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Marcilio Dias Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Marcilio Dias Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |