Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 22:00
CSA vs Lagarto
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSA 1556 · Lagarto 1510
| CSA | Draw | Lagarto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.69CSA 1.99 · Lagarto 0.7
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSA (rating 1556 vs 1510).
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSA | Lagarto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 2.1 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSA 0–1–1 Lagarto
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Lagarto | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CSA |
| 29/12/25 America Friendlies | Lagarto | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CSA |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSA
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 17/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 19/04 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 11/04 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Lagarto
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Decisao Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 30/05 | Treze Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Treze Brazil Serie D |
2-3 | 5-4 | 1 | 5 | W |