Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 23:00
Tombense MG vs CRAC
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tombense MG 1498 · CRAC 1519
| Tombense MG | Draw | CRAC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 33% | 18% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsUnder 1.5 goals · 43% · @2.63 · +14%
Under 3.5 goals · 88% · @1.20 · +6%
High-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.Expected goals1.86Tombense MG 1.23 · CRAC 0.63
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.86 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tombense MG | CRAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.6 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tombense MG 0–0–1 CRAC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | CRAC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tombense MG |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tombense MG
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | CRAC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Vitoria ES Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Porto BA Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Real Noroeste Capixaba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 12 | D |
| 16/05 | Democrata GV Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 11 | D |
| 07/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 26/04 | Democrata GV Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
CRAC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Tombense MG Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Operario FC MS Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Uberlandia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | ABECAT Ouvidorense Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 14 | W |
| 09/05 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | ABECAT Ouvidorense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Uberlandia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Operario FC MS Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |