Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 23:30
Goiatuba vs Brasiliense
35%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Goiatuba 1541 · Brasiliense 1515
| Goiatuba | Draw | Brasiliense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 36% | 30% |
| Market | 36% | 32% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.79Goiatuba 0.93 · Brasiliense 0.86
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 57%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.79 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Goiatuba | Brasiliense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.8 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 6.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Goiatuba 0–1–0 Brasiliense
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Brasiliense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Goiatuba |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Goiatuba
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Brasiliense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 11 | W |
| 31/05 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 14 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 09/05 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |