Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 00:30
SE Gama vs Mixto
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SE Gama 1576 · Mixto 1489
| SE Gama | Draw | Mixto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 26% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.41SE Gama 1.65 · Mixto 0.75
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 56%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SE Gama (rating 1576 vs 1489).
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SE Gama | Mixto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6 | 2.9 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SE Gama 1–0–0 Mixto
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Mixto | 1-2 HT 0-2 | SE Gama |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SE Gama
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 09/05 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | Atletico GO Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
Mixto
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |