Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 20:30
Juazeirense vs Serra Branca EC
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juazeirense 1465 · Serra Branca EC 1534
| Juazeirense | Draw | Serra Branca EC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 38% | 25% |
| Market | 40% | 33% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.57 goals · Bet365 line 1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.57Juazeirense 0.89 · Serra Branca EC 0.68
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 51%
BTTSNo · 56%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 85%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Serra Branca EC (rating 1465 vs 1534).
- Low estimate: 1.57 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Juazeirense | Serra Branca EC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.7 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juazeirense 0–0–1 Serra Branca EC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Serra Branca EC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Juazeirense |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juazeirense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 30/04 | ASA Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 26/04 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Serra Branca EC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Decisao Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Treze Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Treze Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Decisao Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |