Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 21:00
ABC vs AE Altos
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ABC 1565 · AE Altos 1457
| ABC | Draw | AE Altos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.94ABC 2.03 · AE Altos 0.91
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ABC (rating 1565 vs 1457).
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ABC | AE Altos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 2.7 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ABC 1–2–1 AE Altos
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | AE Altos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | ABC |
| 05/05/22 Brazil Serie C | AE Altos | 2-1 HT 1-1 | ABC |
| 16/03/22 Copa do Brasil | ABC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | AE Altos |
| 27/01/19 Brazil Copa Nordeste | AE Altos | 1-1 HT 0-0 | ABC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ABC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 21/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-2 | 2-6 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 9 | D |
AE Altos
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
3-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Ferroviario Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Ferroviario Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |